Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Kelly Gray
Kelly Gray

A passionate storyteller and avid traveler, sharing insights from journeys across the globe.