Unexpected Emissary Pushing Ukraine Ceasefire Plan Reveals JD Vance Influence on US Foreign Policy
The US Army Secretary, Dan Driscoll, was an surprising envoy for the Trump administration newest initiative to end the conflict in Ukraine. His strong relationship with Vice President Vance has positioned a close associate of the Eurosceptic VP at the forefront of Donald Trump recent push to settle the conflict.
Before his last week's visit to Kyiv, Driscoll was unrecognized as a negotiator or diplomat, and his early attempts to promote the deal to officials in Europe were described as chaotic.
Driscoll's strong relationship with Vance, who he attended Yale and shares a personal bond, signal the rising influence of the isolationist VP in talks to resolve the Ukraine crisis.
The VP's Role in Ceasefire Negotiations
It was Vance who stepped in during Ukraine's president's disastrous first visit to the White House in March and insisted he show Trump more respect. Currently, Ukraine is again pushing back against pressure from the US to agree to a quick deal that Ukrainian leaders have called a capitulation.
After a chaotic initial year in power, foreign policy decisions in the White House are said to be shaped by a small group of Trump's top aides, including top aide Susie Wiles, conservative advisor Stephen Miller, envoy Steve Witkoff, secretary of state Marco Rubio, and of course Vance.
Vance has been a vocal advocate of the recent proposal, which was crafted by Witkoff and Trump's relative Jared Kushner, together with the Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
“Every criticism of the ceasefire plan the administration is developing either misinterprets the framework or misstates some critical reality on the ground,” Vance wrote.
Initial Efforts and European Responses
Vance's initial attempts at hammering out a peace deal with Russia, while simultaneously attempting to restore ties with Moscow, were fruitless and left his camp feeling frustrated with their Russian counterparts. Leaders in Europe, in turn, were irritated by his initial speeches, in which he accused them of ignoring their constituents, who Vance said held anti-immigration and conservative positions similar to those of Trump's own constituency.
However, the new ceasefire proposal mirrored his positions, and he has been one of the most forceful advocates for the deal in the administration, even as the US has been under fire for endorsing a ceasefire plan that mostly resembles Vladimir Putin's maximalist terms.
In posts this weekend, Vance asserted that a ceasefire agreement would have to establish a truce that respected Ukrainian independence, be agreeable to each party, and prevent the conflict from resuming.
“A ceasefire won’t be made by unsuccessful negotiators or officials living in a fantasy land,” he added. “It might be made by intelligent people living in the real world.”
It was Vance who continued on the introduction of the ceasefire proposal in a phone call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump had mainly tasked his staff with securing a signature on the ceasefire accord before Thanksgiving this Thursday in the United States.
The Secretary of State's Response and Private Concerns
That was a notably more full-throated support of the proposal than that expressed by the top diplomat and security advisor, Marco Rubio, a more traditional hardliner in the government who has gone from a uncertain stature inside the White House to more firm footing.
Rubio was a member of a US team that went to Geneva this weekend to meet with Ukrainian officials to help refine the initial 28-point peace plan in order to make it more palatable to leaders in Kyiv.
However, his initial reaction to the agreement was lukewarm:
“Ending a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine requires an extensive discussion of substantive and realistic proposals,” Rubio wrote over the weekend. “And, achieving a durable ceasefire will require each party to agree to challenging but essential concessions. This is the reason we are and will continue to create a set of potential solutions for ending this war drawing from feedback from both sides of this war.”
In private, he was reportedly much more doubtful of the proposal. The Republican senator Mike Rounds stated last week at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia that Rubio had called legislators to clarify that the agreement was just a preliminary offer from the Russians and not an plan advocated by the White House.
“The Secretary made a phone call to us this day and I think he emphasized to us that we are the receivers of a proposal that was delivered to one of our officials,” stated Rounds. “It is not our suggestion, it is not our ceasefire proposal.”
Rubio acted swiftly to fall in line. “This ceasefire plan was written by the US,” he subsequently wrote. “The framework is offered as a strong structure for continuing negotiations. The proposal is based on feedback from the Moscow. However, it is also informed by previous and current input from Ukraine.”